Analysis of recent coronavirus data for different countries and regions

Note: On March 24 the source of the data suddenly changed the format of the tables. I have updated the script to use data from a different source. If you see problems with any of the plots, please let me know.

Table of contents

Updated on Saturday 28 March 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths in the previous day

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
Italy 9134 (+919) 86498 (+5909) 10950 (+589) 66414 (+4401)
Spain 5138 (+773) 65719 (+7933) 9357 (+2342) 51224 (+4818)
United States 1607 (+398) 102338 (+18666) 2471 (+607) 98260 (+17661)
France 1995 (+299) 32964 (+3809) 5700 (+752) 25269 (+2758)
United Kingdom 759 (+181) 14543 (+2885) 135 (+0) 13649 (+2704)
Iran 2378 (+144) 32332 (+2926) 11133 (+676) 18821 (+2106)
Netherlands 546 (+112) 8603 (+1172) 3 (+0) 8054 (+1060)
Germany 351 (+84) 50871 (+6933) 6658 (+985) 43862 (+5864)
Belgium 289 (+69) 7284 (+1049) 858 (+183) 6137 (+797)
Switzerland 231 (+40) 12928 (+1117) 1530 (+1399) 11167 (-322)
Sweden 105 (+28) 3069 (+229) 16 (+0) 2948 (+201)
Turkey 92 (+17) 5698 (+2069) 42 (+16) 5564 (+2036)
Canada 55 (+16) 4757 (+714) 354 (+126) 4348 (+572)
Portugal 76 (+16) 4268 (+724) 43 (+0) 4149 (+708)
Brazil 92 (+15) 3417 (+432) 6 (+0) 3319 (+417)
Morocco 23 (+12) 345 (+70) 11 (+3) 311 (+55)
Denmark 52 (+11) 2046 (+169) 1 (+0) 1993 (+158)
Dominican Republic 20 (+10) 581 (+93) 3 (+0) 558 (+83)
Austria 58 (+9) 7697 (+788) 225 (+113) 7414 (+666)
Indonesia 87 (+9) 1046 (+153) 46 (+11) 913 (+133)
Philippines 54 (+9) 803 (+96) 31 (+3) 718 (+84)
South Korea 139 (+8) 9332 (+91) 4528 (+384) 4665 (-301)
Ecuador 41 (+7) 1627 (+224) 3 (+0) 1583 (+217)
Egypt 30 (+6) 536 (+41) 116 (+14) 390 (+21)
Luxembourg 15 (+6) 1605 (+152) 40 (+34) 1550 (+112)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 27 March 2020 23954 (+3265) 512800 (+64473) 58034 (+8705)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 28 March 2020 29070 ( +4417) 605167 ( +83244) 67334 ( +10180)
Sun 29 March 2020 34278 ( +5208) 701688 ( +96521) 79328 ( +11993)
Mon 30 March 2020 40419 ( +6141) 813603 ( +111915) 93457 ( +14130)
Tue 31 March 2020 47660 ( +7242) 943368 ( +129765) 110104 ( +16646)
Wed 01 April 2020 56199 ( +8539) 1093830 ( +150462) 129715 ( +19611)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 27 March 2020 3292 (+5) 81340 (+55) 74588 (+537)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 28 March 2020 3228 ( +1) 80890 ( +0) 73392 ( +178)
Sun 29 March 2020 3229 ( +1) 80891 ( +0) 73546 ( +155)
Mon 30 March 2020 3229 ( +1) 80891 ( +0) 73681 ( +134)
Tue 31 March 2020 3230 ( +1) 80891 ( +0) 73797 ( +117)
Wed 01 April 2020 3230 ( +0) 80891 ( +0) 73898 ( +101)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

If Spain follows Italy's behaviour we should start seeing a flattening of the number of Deaths and cases in the following days, although it is still not clear yet. When that happens the predicted deaths should be reduced with respect to this prediction.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 27 March 2020 5138 (+773) 65719 (+7933) 9357 (+2342)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 28 March 2020 5929 ( +778) 74259 ( +8572) 11817 ( +2670)
Sun 29 March 2020 6669 ( +740) 82889 ( +8629) 15266 ( +3449)
Mon 30 March 2020 7341 ( +672) 91359 ( +8470) 19721 ( +4455)
Tue 31 March 2020 7928 ( +587) 99468 ( +8109) 25477 ( +5756)
Wed 01 April 2020 8423 ( +494) 107049 ( +7581) 32912 ( +7435)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 27 March 2020 9134 (+919) 86498 (+5909) 10950 (+589)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 28 March 2020 9609 ( +628) 89995 ( +4485) 13721 ( +1730)
Sun 29 March 2020 10181 ( +573) 94057 ( +4062) 15700 ( +1980)
Mon 30 March 2020 10694 ( +513) 97688 ( +3631) 17966 ( +2265)
Tue 31 March 2020 11145 ( +451) 100895 ( +3207) 20558 ( +2592)
Wed 01 April 2020 11537 ( +391) 103699 ( +2803) 23524 ( +2966)

United States

I use the combined data for all the states combined

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 27 March 2020 1607 (+398) 102338 (+18666) 2471 (+607)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 28 March 2020 2094 ( +496) 134497 ( +29018) 4716 ( +2124)
Sun 29 March 2020 2744 ( +651) 171497 ( +37000) 8582 ( +3866)
Mon 30 March 2020 3597 ( +853) 218676 ( +47179) 15618 ( +7036)
Tue 31 March 2020 4715 ( +1118) 278835 ( +60158) 28421 ( +12803)
Wed 01 April 2020 6180 ( +1465) 355543 ( +76708) 51721 ( +23300)

France

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 27 March 2020 1995 (+299) 32964 (+3809) 5700 (+752)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 28 March 2020 2618 ( +540) 39939 ( +5678) 8492 ( +2189)
Sun 29 March 2020 3298 ( +681) 46558 ( +6619) 11442 ( +2950)
Mon 30 March 2020 4156 ( +858) 54273 ( +7715) 15417 ( +3975)
Tue 31 March 2020 5237 ( +1081) 63267 ( +8994) 20773 ( +5356)
Wed 01 April 2020 6598 ( +1362) 73751 ( +10484) 27989 ( +7216)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 27 March 2020 2378 (+144) 32332 (+2926) 11133 (+676)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 28 March 2020 2409 ( +88) 30866 ( +1090) 13259 ( +1225)
Sun 29 March 2020 2486 ( +77) 31870 ( +1004) 14608 ( +1350)
Mon 30 March 2020 2552 ( +66) 32787 ( +917) 16096 ( +1487)
Tue 31 March 2020 2608 ( +56) 33620 ( +832) 17734 ( +1639)
Wed 01 April 2020 2655 ( +47) 34370 ( +751) 19540 ( +1805)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 27 March 2020 351 (+84) 50871 (+6933) 6658 (+985)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 28 March 2020 453 ( +104) 54168 ( +4880) 10849 ( +3578)
Sun 29 March 2020 587 ( +135) 58760 ( +4592) 16188 ( +5339)
Mon 30 March 2020 762 ( +174) 62973 ( +4213) 24155 ( +7967)
Tue 31 March 2020 988 ( +226) 66749 ( +3777) 36043 ( +11888)
Wed 01 April 2020 1282 ( +293) 70065 ( +3316) 53781 ( +17738)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 27 March 2020 759 (+181) 14543 (+2885) 135 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 28 March 2020 944 ( +187) 17569 ( +3123) 182 ( +22)
Sun 29 March 2020 1178 ( +234) 21367 ( +3798) 206 ( +25)
Mon 30 March 2020 1469 ( +292) 25986 ( +4619) 234 ( +28)
Tue 31 March 2020 1833 ( +364) 31602 ( +5617) 266 ( +32)
Wed 01 April 2020 2287 ( +454) 38433 ( +6831) 302 ( +36)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 27 March 2020 105 (+28) 3069 (+229) 16 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 28 March 2020 142 ( +37) 3091 ( +161) 16 ( +0)
Sun 29 March 2020 192 ( +50) 3240 ( +149) 16 ( +0)
Mon 30 March 2020 260 ( +68) 3376 ( +136) 16 ( +0)
Tue 31 March 2020 353 ( +93) 3499 ( +123) 16 ( +0)
Wed 01 April 2020 478 ( +125) 3609 ( +110) 16 ( +0)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 27 March 2020 546 (+112) 8603 (+1172) 3 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 28 March 2020 708 ( +152) 10430 ( +1570) 2 ( +0)
Sun 29 March 2020 902 ( +194) 12278 ( +1849) 2 ( +0)
Mon 30 March 2020 1148 ( +247) 14455 ( +2177) 2 ( +0)
Tue 31 March 2020 1462 ( +314) 17017 ( +2562) 2 ( +0)
Wed 01 April 2020 1862 ( +400) 20034 ( +3017) 2 ( +0)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 27 March 2020 16 (+0) 1389 (+168) 7 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 28 March 2020 20 ( +3) 1764 ( +295) nan ( +nan)
Sun 29 March 2020 24 ( +4) 2118 ( +354) nan ( +nan)
Mon 30 March 2020 28 ( +4) 2543 ( +425) nan ( +nan)
Tue 31 March 2020 33 ( +5) 3053 ( +510) nan ( +nan)
Wed 01 April 2020 39 ( +6) 3666 ( +613) nan ( +nan)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 27 March 2020 231 (+40) 12928 (+1117) 1530 (+1399)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 28 March 2020 260 ( +34) 13720 ( +821) nan ( +nan)
Sun 29 March 2020 294 ( +34) 14417 ( +697) nan ( +nan)
Mon 30 March 2020 326 ( +33) 14996 ( +579) nan ( +nan)
Tue 31 March 2020 357 ( +30) 15467 ( +471) nan ( +nan)
Wed 01 April 2020 384 ( +27) 15846 ( +378) nan ( +nan)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 27 March 2020 289 (+69) 7284 (+1049) 858 (+183)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 28 March 2020 392 ( +98) 8315 ( +1133) 1173 ( +274)
Sun 29 March 2020 523 ( +131) 9550 ( +1235) 1531 ( +358)
Mon 30 March 2020 697 ( +174) 10874 ( +1324) 1998 ( +467)
Tue 31 March 2020 929 ( +232) 12269 ( +1395) 2608 ( +610)
Wed 01 April 2020 1238 ( +309) 13712 ( +1443) 3404 ( +796)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.